RttT Contenders: How Badly Do You Want It?

"Nothing moves people as quickly as the need for more funding," U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan said at yesterday's event discussing the Obama education agenda. You can watch Duncan's speech and Q&A at C-SPAN.

The biggest news from this event was the announcement of the round two finalists in Race to the Top:

Arizona, California, Colorado, D.C., Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and South Carolina.

For RttT round two, the Department of Education will award more grants (round one had two winners—Tennessee and Delaware), but the pot of funds for each of the 10–15 winners will be smaller.

ASCD recently launched an interactive map highlighting unemployment rates, projected FY11 budget shortfalls, K–12 and higher education cuts for FY10, and estimates from the Education Commission of the States (ECS) of jobs saved/created in each state.

So, returning to Duncan's quote—which state might have the most motivation to adopt the Obama reform agenda and improve its chances in RttT round two?

Here's the list of RttT finalists in order of greatest to least projected budget shortfalls for FY11, according to data from ASCD's state budget map:

Illinois (-$12,800 million)
California
New Jersey
New York
Florida
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Ohio
Massachusetts
Arizona
Maryland
Colorado
South Carolina
Kentucky
Hawaii
Rhode Island
District of Columbia (-$104 million)
Louisiana (figure not available)